~1 in 4 group games ends in a draw. Adjusts model draw rate.
Default: −10% | Selected: −10%
Rest advantage
Extra rest boosts scoring. 5+ days gap = more goals for the fresher team.
Default: +5% | Selected: +5%
ET fatigue
After a 120-min match, a team's goal output drops in their next game.
Default: −10% | Selected: −10%
Simulations
More runs = more precise knockout %. 50k is most accurate.
Default: 10k | Selected: 10k
Fetching fixtures…
Tournament Draw shows the single most-likely bracket path: actual results lock in completed matches, then the model picks one winner per remaining match using head-to-head Poisson probabilities.
Stage Probabilities aggregates 10,000 simulated tournaments where group outcomes also vary, so a team can have a high QF% overall yet lose in this specific bracket draw — both are correct, they answer different questions.
0 match(es) manually set · Stage Probabilities are unaffected ·
Loading bracket…
Loading scorecard…
Standings use live results · W/D/L bars use Elo seed ratings ·
Starting simulation…